Single source of truth. Every figure reconciles. Do not add, estimate or extrapolate. Version 1.0 · Compiled 22 September 2026 · Fictional brand, real mechanics.
1THE BRAND
Veldkant B.V., Utrecht. Founded 2018 by Sanne Willemse and Joost Brandt, who could not find a rain jacket that survived a Dutch winter commute and did not look like mountaineering equipment.
Technical outdoor gear for people who are outside because of their life, not their hobby. Cyclists, dog walkers, parents on the school run, weekend hikers. Positioning line: "built for the 200 days a year it is grey."
Two product families that behave completely differently:
- Gear — jackets, shells, packs. High ticket, gift-worthy, slow to repurchase, high returns.
- Wear — merino, socks, care kit. Low ticket, high margin, low returns, the only things bought more than once a year.
Channels. Shopify Plus D2C is 88% of revenue. One wholesale account, a national outdoor retailer with 31 stores, is 12%.
Team. Three in marketing: a CRM lead, a performance marketer, a content person. One agency on paid. One developer shared with operations.
Warehouse. In-house, Nieuwegein. Two permanent pickers handling about 125 orders a day. Eight temps join for November, taking the ceiling to 1,400 orders shipped a day.
Customer. 58% women, skewing 30 to 50, concentrated in the Randstad and larger provincial cities. Average 1.4 purchases per 12 months.
The range
2FINANCIAL YEAR (Oct 2025 – Sep 2026)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Gross booked revenue | €6,200,000 |
| Orders | 41,300 |
| AOV | €150 |
| Return rate (full year) | 21% |
| Net revenue after returns | €4,898,000 |
| Realised gross margin (last year's mix, discounts included) | 58% |
| Gross margin on current catalogue at list price | 61.6% |
| Cost to process one return | €14 |
| Value recovered on returned outerwear | ~60% of cost value |
| Paid media spend | €1,100,000 |
| Blended MER | 5.6 |
| Site sessions | 3,100,000 |
| Site conversion rate | 1.33% |
| November + December share of gross revenue | 31% |
Why returned outerwear only recovers 60%: it comes back opened, worn, and late in the season, and clears through the January markdown.
3THE LIST (as at 1 October 2026)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total email profiles | 140,000 |
| Deliverable | 128,000 |
| Engaged (opened or clicked in 90 days) | 52,000 |
| Not engaged in 90 days | 88,000 |
| Never opened anything, ever | 24,000 |
| SMS consent | 4,800 |
| Postal addresses on file (lapsed 12–24 months) | 6,000 |
| Open rate, engaged | 38% |
| Open rate, dormant | 4% |
| Email + SMS share of gross revenue | 24% (€1,488,000) |
| Split of that: flows / campaigns | 41% / 59% |
| Campaigns sent per year | ~60 (weekly newsletter plus peaks) |
| Revenue per campaign | €14,632 |
| Revenue per email delivered | €0.11 |
| Sign-up popup conversion | 1.9% of non-subscribed sessions |
| Popup offer | Free Care Kit, €24 value, €7 COGS. Never a discount code |
List movement over the last 12 months
| Popup signups | +38,285 |
| Checkout opt-ins, net of overlap | +12,000 |
| Unsubscribes | −22,000 |
| Bounced and cleaned | −6,000 |
| Net growth | +22,285 |
| 31 Oct 2025 | 118,000 |
| 31 Oct 2026 | 140,000 |
4FLOWS
Live: welcome (3 emails), new customer thank-you, browse abandonment, add-to-cart abandonment, checkout abandonment, review request.
Not live: back-in-stock, any post-purchase flow beyond the thank-you, second-purchase or cross-sell, winback for lapsed customers, any segmentation inside the flows.
Important: every flow ran unchanged through BFCM 2025. The abandonment flows were still offering the standard free Care Kit while the whole site was 38% off, so the flow incentive was worth less than the sitewide offer.
5BFCM 2025 — WED 26 NOV TO MON 1 DEC (6 DAYS)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Full-price value of goods shipped | €935,484 |
| Discount given away | −€355,484 |
| Booked revenue | €580,000 |
| Orders | 5,100 |
| AOV | €114 |
| Orders on the Friday alone | 2,900 (57%) |
| Over warehouse ceiling on the Friday | 1,500 orders. Backlog cleared the following Wednesday |
| Return rate on this cohort | 29% |
| Refunds | €168,200 |
| Gross profit after discount, returns and processing | ~€96,000 (16.6% of booked) |
| New customers acquired | 3,900 |
| Repeat rate of that cohort by 31 Mar 2026 | 9% |
The discount structure. Advertised "up to 40%". Opened at 25% on the Wednesday. Jumped to 40% on Friday morning when Thursday came in soft. Held 40% to Cyber Monday. Because most volume landed after the jump, the realised blend was 38%.
Email. Nine campaigns to all 112,000 deliverable profiles, 1,008,000 sends. Click rate by send: 2.1%, 1.9%, 1.8%, 1.5%, 1.2%, 1.0%, 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.6%. Unsubscribes 4,900, which is 0.49% per send and 4.4% of the list in six days. 61% of those (2,989) came from profiles that had not opened in 90 days, and that same dormant group produced 0.3% of revenue.
SMS. Two sends to all 4,800 consented numbers, both on the Friday, both a straight copy of that day's email. About €17,000, roughly 3% of the window.
Email and SMS combined: €139,200, 24% of the window.
6NOVEMBER + DECEMBER 2025 (THE FULL PERIOD)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Booked revenue | €1,922,000 |
| Orders | 13,729 |
| AOV | €140 |
| Return rate | 26% |
| Net revenue after returns | €1,422,280 |
| Gross profit after returns and processing | €690,996 |
| Paid media | €350,000 |
| Kept after media | €340,996 (24% of net revenue) |
That €340,996 is the number to beat.
7REPEAT BEHAVIOUR BENCHMARKS
| Cohort | Repeat behaviour |
|---|---|
| Brand average, 12 months | 23% |
| Full-price outerwear buyers | 18% buy from the Wear range within 6 months, on average after 71 days |
| BFCM 2025 cohort | 9% by 31 March 2026 |
71 days from 27 November is 6 February.
8CATALOGUE (all stock available, nothing arrives before February)
| SKU | Price | COGS | Margin | Units | Return rate | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Storm Parka AW26 | €349 | €126 | 64% | 2,400 | 31% | Hero. Sells at full price in December. Shared with wholesale. On market since 8 Sep 2026 |
 | Trail Shell AW26 | €229 | €103 | 55% | 6,000 | 34% | Volume outerwear. Shared with wholesale. Sizing is the top return reason |
 | Trail Shell AW24 | €229 | €103 | 55% | 1,500 | 34% | Dead stock. €154,500 written down in January if unsold. NOT shared with wholesale |
 | Daypack 22L | €129 | €58 | 55% | 4,500 | 8% | Gift-friendly, no sizing risk |
 | Merino Base Layer | €89 | €31 | 65% | 16,000 | 18% | Wears out in ~18 months. Best repeat product |
 | Merino Sock 3-pack | €39 | €12 | 69% | 28,000 | 4% | Giftable, effectively unreturnable, deep stock |
 | Care Kit | €24 | €7 | 71% | unlimited | 2% | Consumable. Repurchased every 4–6 months |
| Gift card | any | — | — | unlimited | 0% | Deferred revenue. No margin cost unless a bonus is added |
Catalogue totals: €5,651,600 at list, €2,167,900 at cost, 61.6% blended margin.
9GIFT AND VALUE-ADD STOCK
| Item | Perceived value | COGS | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beanie (AW25, never released) | €29 | €6.80 | 2,400 |
| Dry bag 8L | €19 | €3.20 | 3,600 |
| Single sock pair | €15 | €4.10 | 4,000 |
| Care Kit | €24 | €7.00 | unlimited |
| Extended warranty, 2 to 3 years | n/a | ~€2 claims liability, lands 2028 | unlimited |
10,000 limited units. €44,240 at cost. €198,000 of perceived value. At 15,000 to 16,800 expected orders, the limited stock covers roughly 60% of them, and no single item covers more than 4,000.
10INCENTIVE LEVERS AND WHAT THEY COST
Costs come out of the €280,000 margin budget. Assume ~16,000 orders unless the plan changes AOV.
| Lever | Margin cost |
|---|---|
| Sitewide % off | €30 per €150 order at 20%, €45 at 30% |
| Spend thresholds: €10 off €75 / €30 off €150 / €70 off €250 | €10–€70 per order. Lifts AOV 12–20% |
| Bundle at fixed price (e.g. parka + care kit at €359) | €14 per bundle |
| Free gift with purchase | €3.20 to €12 per order depending on item |
| Early access, 48h, to a chosen segment | €0 |
| Free returns (current) vs €4.95 paid returns | Free costs €14 per return. Paid recovers €4.95 |
| Gift card bonus: €15 credit on a €100 card | €15, deferred into Q1 |
| Loyalty points multiplier, redeemable Jan–Feb only | €6 per order at 40% redemption. No loyalty program exists yet |
| Direct mail postcard to 6,000 lapsed | €1.40 per piece = €8,400 |
| Second-purchase voucher in the box, valid 1 Dec – 31 Jan | €8 per redemption. Assume 12–15% |
| AW24 clearance at 35–40% off, unadvertised | €80–€92 per unit |
| Drop free shipping threshold from €75 to €0 | €5.80 per order |
| Paid audience sync: suppression, CLV audiences, lookalikes | €0, work only |
| Influencer program, 12 micro-creators | €5,400 fees + €1,512 seeded product at cost |
| Brand collaboration with a non-competing Dutch brand | €8,000 co-marketing + €3,500 product. Exposure to their 30,000-profile list |
Channels available: email, SMS, WhatsApp (not set up), on-site popups and banners, landing pages, packaging inserts, reviews (1,900 on site, no request flow at scale), direct mail, Meta, Google Search and Shopping, TikTok (small test), the wholesale retailer's own channels, organic social.
Current paid setup: one static customer list uploaded quarterly. No suppression of recent buyers, no CLV-based audiences, no lookalikes.
11THE MANDATE
It is 1 October 2026. Build the plan for November and December.
| # | Target | Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | €1.8M net revenue after returns. At last year's 26% that means shipping €2.43M. At 20% it is €2.25M. At 18% it is €2.20M | 31 Dec 2026 |
| 2 | Give away no more than €280,000 of gross margin | 31 Dec 2026 |
| 3 | 15% of first-time November/December buyers purchase again | 31 Mar 2027 |
| 4 | End December with more than the 52,000 engaged profiles held today, spam complaints under 0.10%, and no more than last year's 4,900 unsubscribes | 31 Dec 2026 |
Expected volume: 15,000 to 16,800 orders and 8,000 to 9,500 first-time buyers, depending on the AOV the plan produces. Target 3 therefore means roughly 1,200 to 1,425 repeat purchases.
Not allowed: skipping Black Friday. The board has told the wholesale partner that Veldkant will run a campaign.
12CONSTRAINTS
- Margin budget €280,000, covering 1 November to 31 December. Any margin given away in October counts against it too.
- Inventory is fixed. Nothing arrives before February.
- The 30-day price rule (Omnibus, enforced by the ACM). Any advertised discount must be calculated against the lowest price Veldkant itself charged for that product in the preceding 30 days. Progressive discounts (10%, then 20%, then 30% on the same product) are explicitly allowed for up to three months. Products on the market for under 30 days are exempt.
- Warehouse ceiling 1,400 orders shipped per day. Anything above queues.
- Dates. Black Friday Friday 27 November. Cyber Monday Monday 30 November. Pakjesavond Saturday 5 December, order by Wednesday 2 December. Christmas cutoff Monday 21 December.
- Wholesale clause. The retailer runs 25% off outerwear from Monday 23 to Monday 30 November. Veldkant may not sell a shared SKU below the retailer's price in the same calendar week. Shared SKUs are the Storm Parka and the Trail Shell AW26. The AW24 shell and everything in the Wear range are not covered.
- Paid media is fixed at €280,000 for November and €100,000 for December. How it is allocated is entirely free. CPMs run about 35% higher in Black Friday week, so the same euro buys about 26% less reach.
- Dev freeze from 10 November. Anything technical must be live by 9 November.
- October is available for preparation: list growth, price setting, creative, flows, audience building.
- Everything else is open. Any channel, any audience, any sequence.
13THE JANUARY 2026 RETRO (what the team wrote)
- Every one of the nine emails carried the same 38% offer and the same hero image. Nothing new was launched after the Wednesday, no new product, no new angle. Click rate fell from 2.1% to 0.6%.
- All nine sends went to all 112,000. The 70,000 who had not opened in 90 days produced 0.3% of revenue and 61% of the 4,900 unsubscribes.
- 57% of orders landed on the Friday. The warehouse was 1,500 over capacity in a single day.
- Three SKUs sold out and there was nothing in place to capture the demand.
- After Cyber Monday the weekly newsletter carried on unchanged. Nothing ever spoke to the 3,900 new customers as new customers.
- The two best-performing emails both went to previous customers, who received exactly the same offer as everyone else.
- The abandonment flows ran through the whole sale still offering a free Care Kit, while the site was 38% off.
- _Tim, marketing:_ "We were at 38% and competitors were at 40 to 50. We should have gone deeper."
- _Bas, e-commerce:_ "We should have started on 1 November. The whole market had already moved."
- _Fleur, CRM:_ "SMS didn't work."
- The site was slow on the Friday morning. Traced to a CDN misconfiguration, fixed in February.
14DUTCH MARKET CONTEXT
- In 2025 the seven days before Black Friday carried around 37.8 million iDEAL transactions, against roughly 6.3 million on Black Friday itself. Spend is moving earlier.
- Roughly 37% of Dutch consumers use Black Friday and Cyber Monday to buy Sinterklaas and Christmas gifts. The buyer is often not the wearer.
- Around 68% of Dutch consumers say they are sceptical about Black Friday discounts.
- The average Dutch e-commerce return rate in 2025 was 23.5%. Goods sold in November and December return at around 44.5%, peaking in January. Fashion sits at 30 to 50%.
- Processing a return costs a Dutch webshop between €12.50 and €19.50 all-in.